As the Iran war enters its third month, a few things have come into focus.

Iran has uncovered an important economic and strategic lever in its ability to shut down the flow of oil and other commodities through the Hormuz Strait.

We’ve seen oil prices fluctuate since the airstrikes began but have yet to see the direst of projections come to light. Unlike the 1970s – the U.S. is now an exporter rather than an importer. Prices at the gas station spiked almost 30 cents last week to a national average of $4.30 per gallon per AAA.

Fossil fuels are replaceable across several use cases – including electricity, heating, cooling. Electrification of cars and fleets continues at a rapid pace. China is far and away the world’s largest car market, and roughly half of all Chinese customers opted for electric vehicles in 2024.

U.S. shale fields produce mostly light sweet crude, the preferred input for refining gasoline.

But trains, boats and planes run mostly on diesel and jet fuel which are refined from heavy/medium sour crude. This critical grade of crude is produced predominantly in the Middle East. The disruptions associated with the closing of the Strait of Hormuz have exacerbated a shortage of heavy and medium grade oil that began with Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine and the resulting sanctions.

Over the weekend Spirit Airlines shut down its operations. Already beleaguered, the increasing cost pressures on jet fuel became insurmountable for the company. Several other airlines have curtailed or cancelled flights in recent weeks to conserve jet fuel.

These impacts – along with rising gasoline prices – are more immediately tangible. We are also closely watching the broader impact of these shortages, including the reduced flow of goods including food across the country and globe. It seems to follow that as global trade remains restricted – by tariff or by fuel shortage – we can expect inflationary pressures to remain high with implications for investment portfolios.

ARCHIVE
Canaries, April 20, 2026
Integrity, April 13, 2026
Liquidity, April 6, 2026
Democratizing Private Equity – Part II, March 23, 2026
Democratizing Private Equity – Part I, March 16, 2026
Watching the Lights Turn Red, March 9, 2026
Watching the Lights Turn Green, March 2, 2026
Las Cucarachas, February 9, 2026
Gold Math, February 2, 2026
Uncorrelated, January 26, 2026
A Contrarian Trade? January 20, 2026
Woe is Me, January 12, 2026
Investing for Impact, January 5, 2026
2025

Tide Cycle Resources (Tide Cycle) is an investment advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. A copy of Tide Cycle’s Forms ADV Part 2 and Form CRS are available without charge upon request. The opinions expressed are those of Tide Cycle. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication and are subject to change due to changes in the market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed. Nothing contained in this document may be relied upon as a guarantee, promise, assurance, or representation as to the future. This should not be taken as specific investment advice. We recommend consulting an investment/tax professional before making financial decisions based on any information provided.

Not all posts are archived here. Please reach out if there are other topics that interest you.