Market Commentary
A traditional year end/start of the new year exercise is the list of woe. This is typically a summary of all of the real and potential risks identified in the year ahead – a hedge for us investors if the markets don’t move up and to the right. This year’s list feels particularly heavy – geopolitical risk, climate disasters, debt crisis, cybersecurity, Artificial Intelligence, market concentration, inflation, policy errors. These are threads that underpin our weekly meetings, and they will certainly get coverage in this space in the weeks and months ahead. But following our internal business strategy meeting – which was both aspirational and inspirational – we thought we’d pull that thread. Specifically, what do we think bodes well for 2026, and what realistically could surprise to the upside.
Resources – Several trends are in place to increase efficiency and slow resource depletion. Reduced global trade forces consumers to be more intentional about purchases. In this environment, we see opportunities for domestic manufacturers who will likely source inputs, including labor, locally. Decisions to forgo purchases altogether may reduce overconsumption and waste. And the circular economy could experience a tailwind as consumers find opportunities to repair, reuse, and recycle.
Clarity – Challenging environments force businesses, systems, and people to sharpen focus. Moving through noise and distraction requires a strong compass, persistence, and fortitude. This kind of clarity supports the long-term planning and commitments necessary to address the most pressing problems and opportunities we face. We’re hopeful that this environment will produce novel solutions that foster prosperity and well-being. This clarity rhymes with our process of developing investment portfolios based on long-term goals and aspirations intended to counter short-term uncertainty.
Technology – The hype around Artificial Intelligence is like that of other transformative technologies that came before. The promise of this technology has been met with enthusiasm as we begin to appreciate its applications, and trepidation as we consider its massive potential for disruption. Like the internet at the turn of the century, these early days lend themselves to speculation, both mental and financial (bubble?). There’s so much we cannot anticipate, and it’s certain that there will be winners and losers, but we hold the thread of hope that as things shake out, this new technology paired with humanity and ingenuity offers a future full of promise we cannot conceive of today.
Tide Cycle Resources (Tide Cycle) is an investment advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. A copy of Tide Cycle’s Forms ADV Part 2 and Form CRS are available without charge upon request. The opinions expressed are those of Tide Cycle. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication and are subject to change due to changes in the market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed. Nothing contained in this document may be relied upon as a guarantee, promise, assurance, or representation as to the future. This should not be taken as specific investment advice. We recommend consulting an investment/tax professional before making financial decisions based on any information provided.
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