On Saturday, Israel and the United States launched a series of attacks on several Iranian cities including Tehran where the strikes killed supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other high-level officials. The war expanded as Iran retaliated targeting U.S. and Israeli assets across the middle east, while Israel and Hezbollah renewed attacks over their borders.

As we write, oil prices have surged globally capping a steady rise in 2026. The prices of U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude and global benchmark Brent crude advanced steadily in January and February in response to the increased intensity of President Trump’s comments around Iran and its nuclear program before reaching new highs as trading resumed on Monday.

Gold also experienced a dramatic boost in early trading on Monday, before settling into a more muted gain. A safe-haven asset, gold has extended its record 2025 into the uncertainty of 2026.

Beyond that, reactions across the capital markets were mixed. The U.S. dollar, another historic safe haven, benefited from the turmoil. However, demand for U.S. Treasuries, typically a driver of the dynamic of a stronger dollar, stalled as inflation expectations rose.

In keeping with the narrative of a stock market willing to shrug off a litany of bad news, we literally watched the U.S. market indicators on our screens turn green during our Monday morning meeting. The S&P 500 Index and the tech-heavy NASDAQ Index, cratered in early trading before regaining ground to close Monday’s trading session with gains. The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average also recovered from early selling but finished the session with a modest loss. Most major international markets indices (FTSE, Hang Seng, DAX, Nikkei) finished Monday substantially lower.

Our hearts are with those who are adversely and directly affected, including and especially the brave members of our armed services. We are today equally humbled by the markets and their continued aversion to prediction and steadfast in our investment approach that emphasizes long-term, strategic planning.

ARCHIVE
Las Cucarachas, February 9, 2026
Gold Math, February 2, 2026
Uncorrelated, January 26, 2026
A Contrarian Trade? January 20, 2026
Woe is Me, January 12, 2026
Investing for Impact, January 5, 2026
2025

Tide Cycle Resources (Tide Cycle) is an investment advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. A copy of Tide Cycle’s Forms ADV Part 2 and Form CRS are available without charge upon request. The opinions expressed are those of Tide Cycle. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication and are subject to change due to changes in the market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed. Nothing contained in this document may be relied upon as a guarantee, promise, assurance, or representation as to the future. This should not be taken as specific investment advice. We recommend consulting an investment/tax professional before making financial decisions based on any information provided.

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