Soundings

Bonds are boring. That’s their job.

Bonds, especially higher quality bonds, typically do best in periods of economic uncertainty or collapse.

And yet… the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index – a mix of investment grade bonds including U.S. Treasuries, Government Agency, Corporate, and Mortgage-Backed Securities – was up 6.6% year to date at the time of this post, it’s best year since 2020.

This year, bonds have benefited from a goldilocks environment, with economic data sufficiently concerning to support interest rate cuts, but not concerning enough to signal stress on issuers.

The difference in yield (or credit spread) between more and less risky bonds has been at an historic low – and thus far this year, there’s minimal dispersion across the returns earned by holders of Treasuries and those earned by high yield investors.

The phenomenon is global. A recent chart posted by Apollo showed that 88% of bonds globally trade at a yield of 5% or less.

Against this backdrop the difference in performance between the top and bottom 25% of managers in the U.S. Core Fixed Income universe (eVestment) through September 30th was just 38 basis points. While most managers have outperformed the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index year to date, the reward for all of that measured risk taking has been paltry.

The rising tide has lifted all boats.

Tide Cycle Resources (Tide Cycle) is an investment advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. A copy of Tide Cycle’s Forms ADV Part 2 and Form CRS are available without charge upon request. The opinions expressed are those of Tide Cycle. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication and are subject to change due to changes in the market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed. Nothing contained in this document may be relied upon as a guarantee, promise, assurance, or representation as to the future. This should not be taken as specific investment advice. We recommend consulting an investment/tax professional before making financial decisions based on any information provided.

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